Silver & Black Blog: Week 12 picks

If you're strictly betting with your head, as you should, Dallas would be the easy pick over the Raiders ... regardless of whether you're giving points or not.

The Raiders have won just three games this year, and the first two have been followed with some poor performances.

The Raiders followed their 13-10 September victory over Kansas City by being outscored 96-16 in defeats to Denver, Houston and the New York Giants.

They followed those defeats with a 13-9 victory over Philadelphia. The win over the Eagles was followed by a 38-0 loss to the New York Giants.

While Sunday's victory over Cincinnati in Bruce Gradkowski's debut as starting quarterback gave the Raider Nation reason to celebrate, it's hard for me to imagine they can win at Dallas.

Of course, I picked Cincinnati to beat the Raiders, so what do I know? (Well, I did go 11-4 last week) ...

More than playing at Dallas (where the Raiders are 3-0) and against Tony Romo (who has never lost a Thanksgiving game), my concern is with Marion Barber.

He rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown last week against Washington. Yeah, he has slumped since his 124-yard game against the Giants in Week 2, with no more than 53 yards in a game before last week.

Still, the Raiders still seem susceptible to the run, and coupled with the turf, I see Dallas being able to come out conservatively, and ground out a victory.

I hope I'm wrong, but ...

Pick: Dallas

In other games ...

Green Bay at Detroit: Tough losses on defense for the Packers, but they simply have too much talent. Pick: Green Bay

New York Giants at Denver: Neither of these teams is playing well, so I'll give the nod to the home team. Pick: Denver

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons should be able to recover from their loss to the Giants. Pick: Atlanta

Miami at Buffalo: Miami's five losses this year are to Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans and New England. Simply, they don't lose to bad teams. Pick: Miami

Washington at Philadelphia: Redskins hung with Dallas. They won't do the same against Philly. Pick: Philadelphia

Seattle at St. Louis: The Rams have come close their last two games against Arizona and New Orleans. They'll get over the hump on Sunday. Pick: St. Louis

Carolina at New York Jets: If it's Thanksgiving weekend, it's the start of "must-win" games. This is one of them. Pick: Jets

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Bungles will return to Bengals form and win easily. Pick: Cincinnati

Indianapolis at Houston: This one won't come down to a field goal. Pick: Indianpolis

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs' good feelings about their win over the Steelers will be short-lived. Pick: San Diego.

Jacksonville at San Francisco: Jacksonville has been playing well, but against so-so teams. Pick: San Francisco

Chicago at Minnesota: Jay Cutler vs. Brett Favre ... Pick: Minnesota

Arizona at Tennessee: The Titans are one of the NFL's hottest teams. The Cardinals play in the NFC West. Pick: Tennessee

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: First of two meetings between the two. I envision a series split with the home teams winning. Pick: Baltimore

New England at New Orleans: Probably showing my AFC ties here, but with the way they played at unbeaten Indianapolis a few weeks ago, I like the Patriots. Pick: New England

Last week: 11-4 Season: 101-55 (.647)